The global economy may continue to diverge in a stable recovery.

In 2024, the global economy is recovering slowly with insufficient growth momentum. The IMF estimates a growth rate of 3.2%, the slowest in 30 years. The growth rate is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2025, but regional differentiation is expected to intensify. The inflation rate is expected to decline, and the job market is stable. Fiscal policy is returning to normalization, while monetary policy remains accommodative. Global trade is expected to recover, but the restructuring of supply chains will have a profound impact. Cross-border investment is improving from a sluggish state, but the flow is differentiated. U.S. policy has become a key variable in the global economic recovery, and the growth outlook faces downward risks.

In 2024, global inflation eased, with the IMF estimating a CPI increase of 5.8%, a decrease from 2023. It is expected to further drop to 4.3% in 2025. Inflation in major economies is slowing down, but there may be a rebound in some. Global trade rebounded in 2024, with the WTO estimating a growth of 2.7%. In 2025, the recovery is expected to continue, with a growth rate of 3.0%, but it faces challenges from geopolitical instability and trade barriers. Asia is leading export growth, while Europe's performance is weak.

In 2024, global FDI improved from a sluggish state, reaching $809 billion in the first half of the year, a 25% increase. In 2025, a slight growth is expected, influenced by policies after elections. Geopolitical factors are significant, making FDI fragile and growing slowly. In 2024, global fiscal policy continued to normalize, with developed economies having a deficit of 2.7% and emerging economies 3.5%. In 2025, fiscal policy is expected to continue normalizing, with varying degrees of deficit convergence.

In 2024, developed economies lowered interest rates, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in September. In 2025, it is expected that rate cuts will continue, but the pace is highly uncertain, and policy differentiation among economies will be more apparent. The Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts, the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting rates, and the Bank of Japan will slightly raise rates. The U.S. interest rate center may rise, while the Eurozone rate will decline.